Carson Wentz
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Under 19.5
70%7 of 10L10
Under 19.5 Completions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).
Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 5.2–30.4 completions.
What's different on Monday
Under 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pickAll 3 of his last 3 came before Wentz missed 5 games. Since he came back: Under 19.5 in no games.
MonBack from an absence
Monday's game is his 1st back after missing 5 games in a row (Sep 27 – Nov 1)
MonDefense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 24.1 completions a game to quarterbacks: 2nd most of 32
7 games
MonPass attempts
Last 3: 22 attempts · 2025: 33.8 (5 games) · down 35%
New team
7 games with MIN; before that, KC
Under 19.5 with MIN: 4 of 7; his last 3 games before: 3 of 3
Splits
Under 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Under 19.5
- Average
- 16.2
- −3.3 vs line
- Median
- 14.5
- −5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 54%
- at −117
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −125
Research, not a pick. At −117 the price beats our fair −125, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −14303 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −2753 books | — | 7/10 | |
| −1123 books | −1171 book | 7/10 | |
| +1803 books | — | 7/10 | |
| +3503 books | — | 7/10 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 19.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 19.5 | Under 19.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX4 min ago | −112Best | −117Best |
| Bally Bet4 min ago | −112Best | — |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −112Best | — |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:40 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
19.5Under: −110 → −117 since first seen