Carson Wentz

Minnesota Vikings · QB · #11

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under29.5

Under 29.5 Passing Attempts, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 29.5 Passing Attempts hit in 7 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

at SF, 2024-01-07: 24, hit, 24 attempts
at CLE, 2024-12-15: 2, hit, 2 attempts
at DEN, 2025-01-05: 17, hit, 17 attempts
vs CIN, 2025-09-21: 20, hit, 20 attempts
at PIT, 2025-09-28: 46, missed, 46 attempts
at CLE, 2025-10-05: 34, missed, 34 attempts
vs PHI, 2025-10-19: 42, missed, 42 attempts
at LAC, 2025-10-23: 27, hit, 27 attempts
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 19, hit, 19 attempts
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 20, hit, 20 attempts

Under hitMissedThe 29.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 8.8–46.5 passing attempts.

What's different on Monday

Under 29.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 3 of his last 3 came before Wentz missed 5 games. Since he came back: Under 29.5 in no games.

MonBack from an absence
Monday's game is his 1st back after missing 5 games in a row (Sep 27 – Nov 1)
MonDefense vs quarterbacks
BUF allow 38.3 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks: 2nd most of 32
7 games
MonPass attempts
Last 3: 22 attempts · 2025: 33.8 (5 games) · down 35%
New team
7 games with MIN; before that, KC
Under 29.5 with MIN: 4 of 7; his last 3 games before: 3 of 3

Splits

Under 29.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 29.5

Average: 25.1; −4.4 vs line
Median: 22; −7.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 55%; estimate · fair −121

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −121, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3853 books	—	6/10
−2003 books	—	7/10
−1143 books	−1152 books	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/10
+1453 books	—	7/10
+2353 books	—	7/10
+3753 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 29.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 29.5 Passing Attempts, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 29.5	Under 29.5
betPARX3 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers3 min ago	−115	−115
Bally Bet3 min ago	−114Best	—

Prices as of 6:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

29.5

Under: −113 → −115 since first seen