Carson Wentz

Minnesota Vikings · QB · #11

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under215.5

Under 215.5 Pass+Rush Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 215.5 Pass+Rush Yards hit in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 3 at home).

at SF, 2024-01-07: 219, missed, 41 attempts + carries
at CLE, 2024-12-15: 20, hit, 5 attempts + carries
at DEN, 2025-01-05: 98, hit, 17 attempts + carries
vs CIN, 2025-09-21: 177, hit, 22 attempts + carries
at PIT, 2025-09-28: 362, missed, 48 attempts + carries
at CLE, 2025-10-05: 249, missed, 37 attempts + carries
vs PHI, 2025-10-19: 341, missed, 46 attempts + carries
at LAC, 2025-10-23: 144, hit, 27 attempts + carries
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 132, hit, 24 attempts + carries
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 149, hit, 23 attempts + carries

Under hitMissedThe 215.5 linePass attempts + carries

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 51.7–356.8 pass+rush yards.

What's different on Monday

Under 215.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 3 of his last 3 came before Wentz missed 5 games. Since he came back: Under 215.5 in no games.

MonBack from an absence
Monday's game is his 1st back after missing 5 games in a row (Sep 27 – Nov 1)
MonPass attempts + carries
Last 3: 24.7 attempts + carries · 2025: 36 (5 games) · down 31%
New team
7 games with MIN; before that, KC
Under 215.5 with MIN: 4 of 7; his last 3 games before: 2 of 3
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Wentz has missed the last 5 games

Splits

Under 215.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 215.5

Average: 189.1; −26.4 vs line
Median: 163; −52.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 54%; estimate · fair −119

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −119, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4203 books	—	5/10
−3453 books	—	6/10
−1803 books	—	6/10
−1143 books	−1152 books	6/10
+1123 books	—	7/10
+2153 books	—	8/10
+4003 books	—	8/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 215.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 215.5 Pass+Rush Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 215.5	Under 215.5
betPARX6 min ago	−114Best	−114Best
BetRivers6 min ago	−115	−115
Bally Bet6 min ago	−114Best	—

Prices as of 3:15 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

215.5

217.5 → 215.5 since first seen