C.J. Stroud

Houston Texans · QB · #7

HOU @ LAC · Sun, Nov 8 4:05 PM

Over Under21.5

Over 21.5 Completions, typical price −1305 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

40%4 of 10L10

Over 21.5 Completions cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 on the road).

vs IND, 2026-01-04: 14, missed, 23 attempts
at PIT, 2026-01-12: 21, missed, 32 attempts
at NE, 2026-01-18: 20, missed, 47 attempts
vs BUF, 2026-09-13: 26, cleared, 38 attempts
vs CIN, 2026-09-20: 30, cleared, 55 attempts
at IND, 2026-09-27: 16, missed, 27 attempts
vs DAL, 2026-10-04: 21, missed, 31 attempts
at TEN, 2026-10-11: 26, cleared, 34 attempts
at JAX, 2026-10-18: 24, cleared, 34 attempts
vs NYG, 2026-10-25: 17, missed, 28 attempts

ClearedMissedThe 21.5 linePass attempts

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 15.2–28.4 completions.

What's different on Sunday

Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs quarterbacks
LAC allow 18.7 completions a game to quarterbacks: 28th most of 32
7 games
Pass attempts
Last 3: 32 attempts · 2026: 35.3 (7 games)
Rest
13 days off since Oct 25 vs NYG
Game lines
HOU −4.5 · total 40.5 (8 sportsbooks)
HOU's games this season closed at 43.5 on average (7 games)

Splits

Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against LAC in his last 10; Over 21.5 cleared in 1 of 2 against LAC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

Last vs LAC

Completions: 16 in 28 attempts, Dec 27, 2025 (away)

Over 21.5 hit in 1 of 2 games against LAC on record

L10 · Over 21.5

Average: 21.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 21; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 57%; at −130
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 52%; estimate · fair −110

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −110, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−20003 books	—	9/10
−6703 books	—	7/10
−2753 books	—	7/10
−1305 books	−1123 books	4/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	4/10
+1453 books	—	4/10
+2603 books	—	3/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Completions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
Pinnacle6 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bovada6 min ago	−125	−105Best
Bally Bet6 min ago	−130	—
betPARX6 min ago	−130	−112
BetRivers6 min ago	−130	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:43 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

Over: −125 → −130 since first seen