Breece Hall

New York Jets · RB · #20

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under40.5

Over 40.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1134 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 40.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NE, 2025-11-13: 58, cleared, 14 carries
at BAL, 2025-11-23: 44, cleared, 16 carries
vs ATL, 2025-11-30: 68, cleared, 19 carries
vs MIA, 2025-12-07: 43, cleared, 14 carries
at JAX, 2025-12-14: 23, missed, 12 carries
at NO, 2025-12-21: 54, cleared, 16 carries
vs NE, 2025-12-28: 111, cleared, 14 carries
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 102, cleared, 22 carries
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 29, missed, 16 carries
at DET, 2026-09-27: 32, missed, 13 carries

ClearedMissedThe 40.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 14.3–103.9 rushing yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 40.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 7 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came before Hall missed 5 games. Since he came back: Over 40.5 in no games.

SunBack from an absence
Sunday's game is his 1st back after missing 5 games in a row (Oct 4 – Nov 1)
Quarterback
Geno Smith led NYJ in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 40.5 with Smith at quarterback: 1 of 3; with another NYJ quarterback: 28 of 42
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 70.3 rushing yards a game to running backs: 29th most of 32
7 games
Carries
Last 3: 17 carries · 2025: 15.2 (16 games)

Splits

Over 40.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 40.5

Average: 56.4; +15.9 vs line
Median: 49; +8.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −113
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 59%; estimate · fair −145

Research, not a pick. At −112 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −145, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3401 book	—	9/10
−2654 books	—	8/10
−1204 books	—	7/10
−1134 books	−1173 books	7/10
+1554 books	—	5/10
+2754 books	—	3/10
+3201 book	—	2/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 40.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 40.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 40.5	Under 40.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−112Best	—
betPARX4 min ago	−112Best	−117
BetRivers3 min ago	−113	−118
FanDuel2 min ago	−114	−114Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:51 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

40.5

47.5 → 40.5 since first seen