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Breece Hall

New York Jets · RB · #20

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 Receptions, typical price −2051 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

Game log against Under 2.5

70%7 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Receptions hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

  1. at NE, 2025-11-13: 2, hit, 2 targets
  2. at BAL, 2025-11-23: 4, missed, 4 targets
  3. vs ATL, 2025-11-30: 2, hit, 2 targets
  4. vs MIA, 2025-12-07: 0, hit, 1 targets
  5. at JAX, 2025-12-14: 2, hit, 2 targets
  6. at NO, 2025-12-21: 2, hit, 3 targets
  7. vs NE, 2025-12-28: 2, hit, 3 targets
  8. at TEN, 2026-09-13: 2, hit, 2 targets
  9. vs GB, 2026-09-20: 5, missed, 5 targets
  10. at DET, 2026-09-27: 3, missed, 3 targets
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 lineTargets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 receptions.

What's different on Sunday

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Quarterback

    Geno Smith led NYJ in passing in 8 of 8 games this season

    Under 2.5 with Smith at quarterback: 1 of 3; with another NYJ quarterback: 19 of 41

  • Defense vs running backs

    KC allow 4.7 receptions a game to running backs: 13th most of 32

    7 games

  • Targets

    Last 3: 3.3 targets · 2025: 3.2 (15 games)

    Target share: 10% last 3 games · 10% over 3 games this season

  • Rest

    6 days off since Nov 1 vs LV

    Hall has missed the last 5 games

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.4
−0.1 vs line
Median
2
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
70%
7 of 10
Price implies
67%
at −205
Books’ fair
63%
margin removed
Our chance
60%
estimate · fair −153

Research, not a pick. At −205 the price is worse than our fair −153, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−8501 book—1/10
−1881 book—1/10
+1521 book−2051 book7/10
+2901 book—8/10
+5501 book—9/10
+9201 book—10/10
+12801 book—10/10
Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Receptions, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
FanDuel4 min ago+152Best−205Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 6:21 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

−192 → −205 since first seen

Breece Hall's full game log and splits