Breece Hall

New York Jets · RB · #20

NYJ @ KC · Sun, Nov 8 1:00 PM

Over Under56.5

Over 56.5 Rush+Rec Yards, typical price −1153 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 56.5 Rush+Rec Yards cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NE, 2025-11-13: 64, cleared, 16 carries + targets
at BAL, 2025-11-23: 119, cleared, 20 carries + targets
vs ATL, 2025-11-30: 76, cleared, 21 carries + targets
vs MIA, 2025-12-07: 43, missed, 15 carries + targets
at JAX, 2025-12-14: 37, missed, 14 carries + targets
at NO, 2025-12-21: 63, cleared, 19 carries + targets
vs NE, 2025-12-28: 129, cleared, 17 carries + targets
at TEN, 2026-09-13: 118, cleared, 24 carries + targets
vs GB, 2026-09-20: 92, cleared, 21 carries + targets
at DET, 2026-09-27: 55, missed, 16 carries + targets

ClearedMissedThe 56.5 lineCarries + targets

Our model's range for Sunday's game: a typical game lands 27.2–131.2 rush+rec yards.

What's different on Sunday

Over 56.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 7 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came before Hall missed 5 games. Since he came back: Over 56.5 in no games.

SunBack from an absence
Sunday's game is his 1st back after missing 5 games in a row (Oct 4 – Nov 1)
Quarterback
Geno Smith led NYJ in passing in 8 of 8 games this season
Over 56.5 with Smith at quarterback: 2 of 3; with another NYJ quarterback: 30 of 42
Defense vs running backs
KC allow 112.1 rushing + receiving yards a game to running backs: 24th most of 32
7 games
Carries + targets
Last 3: 20.3 carries + targets · 2025: 18.2 (16 games)
Target share: 10% last 3 games · 10% over 3 games this season

Splits

Over 56.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against KC on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 56.5

Average: 79.6; +23.1 vs line
Median: 70; +13.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −151

Research, not a pick. At −115 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −151, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1803 books	—	8/10
−1153 books	−1142 books	7/10
−1141 book	−1141 book	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/10
+2203 books	—	5/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 56.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 56.5 Rush+Rec Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 56.5	Under 56.5
Bally Bet4 min ago	−115Best	—
betPARX5 min ago	−115Best	−113Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−117	−114

Prices as of 11:37 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

56.5

60.5 → 56.5 since first seen