Aaron Jones Sr.

Minnesota Vikings · RB · #33

BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM

Over Under31.5

Over 31.5 Rushing Yards, typical price −1155 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Over 31.5 Rushing Yards cleared in 8 of his last 10 games (3 of 4 at home).

at DAL, 2025-12-14: 34, cleared, 12 carries
at NYG, 2025-12-21: 85, cleared, 21 carries
vs DET, 2025-12-25: 53, cleared, 18 carries
vs GB, 2026-09-13: 40, cleared, 12 carries
at CHI, 2026-09-20: 105, cleared, 23 carries
at TB, 2026-09-27: 58, cleared, 17 carries
vs MIA, 2026-10-04: 94, cleared, 20 carries
at NO, 2026-10-11: 113, cleared, 25 carries
vs IND, 2026-10-25: 26, missed, 8 carries
at DET, 2026-11-01: 22, missed, 5 carries

ClearedMissedThe 31.5 lineCarries

Our model's range for Monday's game: a typical game lands 9.1–107.2 rushing yards.

What's different on Monday

Over 31.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 31.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 26 of 32
Defense vs running backs
BUF allow 81.4 rushing yards a game to running backs: 22nd most of 32
7 games
Carries
Last 3: 12.7 carries · 2026: 15.7 (7 games)
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET

Splits

Over 31.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

L10 · Over 31.5

Average: 63; +31.5 vs line
Median: 55.5; +24 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −115
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −154

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −154, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3754 books	—	10/10
−2101 book	—	9/10
−1364 books	—	8/10
−1155 books	−1144 books	8/10
−1101 book	−1201 book	8/10
+1554 books	—	7/10
+2954 books	—	6/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 31.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 31.5 Rushing Yards, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 31.5	Under 31.5
FanDuel7 min ago	−114Best	−114
Pinnacle8 min ago	−114Best	−114
Bally Bet8 min ago	−115	—
betPARX8 min ago	−115	−113Best
BetRivers8 min ago	−117	−114
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

31.5

−114 → −115 since first seen