Aaron Jones Sr.
BUF @ MIN · Mon, Nov 9 8:15 PM
Game log against Over 7.5
60%6 of 10L10
Over 7.5 Receiving Yards cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
What's different on Monday
Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pickMonTargets
Last 3: 2 targets · 2026: 3.5 (6 games) · down 43%
Target share: 7% last 3 games · 12% over 6 games this season
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Questionable (hamstring). He led MIN in passing in 5 of 7 games this season
Also led: Carson Wentz 2. Over 7.5 with Murray at quarterback: 3 of 5; with another MIN quarterback: 26 of 31
Defense vs running backs
BUF allow 44.4 receiving yards a game to running backs: 4th most of 32
7 games
Rest
7 days off since Nov 1 at DET
Splits
Over 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against BUF on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
L10 · Over 7.5
- Average
- 13.9
- +6.4 vs line
- Median
- 9
- +1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −114
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Targets
- 3.2
- 10 games · 3.4 in 2025
Research, not a pick. We have no number of our own on this line yet; the market makes the Over 7.5 50%.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −1921 book | — | 6/10 | |
| −1141 book | −1141 book | 6/10 | |
| +1161 book | — | 5/10 | |
| +2001 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +3201 book | — | 3/10 | |
| +4901 book | — | 3/10 | |
| +7001 book | — | 3/10 |
Compare 1 sportsbook and 3 pick'em apps at 7.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 7.5 | Under 7.5 |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel3 min ago | −114Best | −114Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 5:45 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
7.5No move since first seen