VJ Edgecombe

Philadelphia 76ers · G · #77

PHI @ DET · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2362 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tomorrow

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Dominick Barlow: Out (back)
Under 1.5 without him: 15 of 19; with him: 39 of 74 (93 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
DET allow 3.6 steals a game to guards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 33 min · 2025–26: 35.3 (86 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs CHI

80%8 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 on the road).

at NY, 2026-05-06: 1, hit, 40 min
vs NY, 2026-05-08: 2, missed, 40 min
vs NY, 2026-05-10: 0, hit, 30 min
at NY, 2026-10-20: 1, hit, 35 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 33 min
vs MIL, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 30 min
at IND, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 29 min
vs NY, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 36 min
at CHA, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 37 min
vs CHI, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 33 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tomorrow's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against DET in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 against DET on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Tyrese MaxeyG
Joel EmbiidC
Jaylen BrownG
Dominick BarlowFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tomorrow. Only games they were teammates on the 76ers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DET

Edgecombe didn't play the Oct 25 meeting; steals the last time Edgecombe faced them: 2 (Apr 4)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against DET on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.1; −0.4 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −236
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 69%; estimate · fair −227

Research, not a pick. At −220 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −227, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3002 books	—	2/10
+1622 books	−2362 books	8/10
+4902 books	—	9/10
+12002 books	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+162	−220Best
DraftKings3 min ago	+175Best	−236
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:56 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −220 → −236 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

VJ Edgecombe's full game log and splits