Trey Murphy III

New Orleans Pelicans · F · #25

NO @ MEMPelicans @ Grizzlies · Today 8:00 PM ET

The line

Under 1.5 Steals

−2023 sportsbooksbest −168

Game log

Under 1.5

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 9 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

vs CLE: 1, hit
at NY: 1, hit
at POR: 1, hit
at SAC: 0, hit
vs IND: 0, hit
at UTAH: 1, hit
at DEN: 1, hit
vs DEN: 2, missed
vs SAC: 1, hit
vs ATL: 1, hit

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 steals.

Home and away

L10 · Under 1.5

Home

80%

4 of 5

Awaytonight

100%

5 of 5

L10 · Under 1.5 Steals

Average: 0.9; −0.6 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 67%; −202, 3 sportsbooks
Market’s fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 66%; estimate · fair −194

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Research, not a pick. At −168 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −194, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings27 min ago	+126	−168Best
betPARX26 min ago	+175Best	−245
Bally Bet26 min ago	+175Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price