Trey Murphy III
NO @ MEM · Mon, Nov 2 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 4.5
70%7 of 10L10
Over 4.5 Rebounds cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1.8–8.5 rebounds.
No matchup, rest or pace facts for this line yet: they come with the next publish.
L10 · Over 4.5
- Average
- 5.1
- +0.6 vs line
- Median
- 5.5
- +1 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 59%
- at −143
- Books’ fair
- 55%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 60%
- estimate · fair −150
Research, not a pick. At −139 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −150, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| +1131 book | — | 9/10 | |
| −8353 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −3153 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −1434 books | +1083 books | 7/10 | |
| pick'em only | pick'em only | 5/10 | |
| +1323 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +2303 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle23 hr ago | −139Best | +105 |
| Bally Bet23 hr ago | −143 | — |
| betPARX23 hr ago | −143 | +108Best |
| DraftKings23 hr ago | −143 | +108Best |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5No opening line kept for this market yet.
No line history recorded for this market yet.
What moved our number
Pace+4%
This page last updated 8:12 PM ET.