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Trey Murphy III
NO @ MEMPelicans @ Grizzlies · Today 8:00 PM ET
The line
Under 3.5 Assists
Typical price −1434 sportsbooksbest −139
Game log
Under 3.5Under 3.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1–6 assists.
Home and away
L10 · Under 3.5Home
80%
4 of 5
Awaytonight
60%
3 of 5
L10 · Under 3.5 Assists
- Average
- 2.7
- −0.8 vs line
- Median
- 3
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 70%
- 7 of 10
- Price implies
- 59%
- −143, 4 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 55%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −128
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −139 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −128, so it isn't worth it.
Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| betPARX2 hr ago | +105 | −139Best |
| Pinnacle2 hr ago | +110 | −147 |
| Bally Bet2 hr ago | +105 | — |
| DraftKings2 hr ago | +136Best | — |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:12 PM ET.
Every posted line
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −7702 books | — | 2/10 | |
| −2303 books | +1161 book | 4/10 | |
| +1074 books | −1432 books | 7/10 | |
| +2253 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +4403 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +8003 books | — | 10/10 | |
| +14401 book | — | 10/10 | |
| +22001 book | — | 10/10 |
What moved our number
Pace+4%