Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets · C · #15

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −1662 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Under 1.5 without him: 12 of 23; with him: 34 of 54 (77 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
TOR allow 1.1 steals a game to centers: 8th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 37.2 min · 2025–26: 35.2 (71 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

50%5 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 4 at home).

at MIN, 2026-04-23: 2, missed, 35 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 3, missed, 41 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 0, hit, 38 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 0, hit, 43 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 35 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 2, missed, 44 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 35 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 34 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 3, missed, 37 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 4, missed, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
DeMar DeRozanG
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Steals: 1 in 37 min, Mar 20 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against TOR on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −166
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −154 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4202 books	—	2/10
+1162 books	−1662 books	5/10
+3702 books	—	7/10
+9202 books	—	9/10
+21001 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDueljust now	+116	−154Best
DraftKings2 min ago	+124Best	−166
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 3:00 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −158 → −166 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Nikola Jokic's full game log and splits