Nikola Jokic

Denver Nuggets · C · #15

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Blocks, typical price −1952 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 0.5 without him: 16 of 23; with him: 25 of 54 (77 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
TOR allow 1.1 blocks a game to centers: 16th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 37.2 min · 2025–26: 35.2 (71 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Blocks cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 at home).

at MIN, 2026-04-23: 0, missed, 35 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 1, cleared, 41 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 2, cleared, 38 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 1, cleared, 43 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 1, cleared, 35 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 3, cleared, 44 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 3, cleared, 35 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 34 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 0, missed, 37 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 blocks.

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 4 of 4 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
DeMar DeRozanG
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Blocks: 1 in 37 min, Mar 20 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 66%; at −195
Books’ fair: 61%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −160

Research, not a pick. At −188 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −160, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1952 books	+1402 books	7/10
+2292 books	—	3/10
+7702 books	—	2/10
+19001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Blocks, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−188Best	+140
DraftKings10 min ago	−195	+146Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:19 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over −188 → −195 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Nikola Jokic's full game log and splits