Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Atlanta Hawks · G · #7

ATL @ WSH · Live

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2032 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 1, hit, 34 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 1, hit, 29 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 30 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 2, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 3, missed, 32 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 29 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 32 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 0, hit, 31 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 29 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 4, missed, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 7 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jalen Johnson playing; Johnson is out yesterday. Without him: Under 1.5 in 3 of 8.

YesterdayTeammate out
Jalen Johnson: Out (ankle)
Under 1.5 without him: 3 of 8; with him: 53 of 84 (92 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 1.5 without him: 9 of 13; with him: 14 of 29 (42 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
WSH allow 3.7 steals a game to guards: 22nd most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 30.1 (8 games)

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 5 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFOut
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Alexander-Walker didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; steals the last time Alexander-Walker faced them: 2 (Feb 24)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −203
Books’ fair: 63%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −178

Research, not a pick. At −203 the price is worse than our fair −178, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3052 books	—	1/10
+1502 books	−2031 book	7/10
+4402 books	—	8/10
+13001 book	—	9/10
+25001 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings18 hr ago	+151Best	−203Best
Bally Bet18 hr ago	+150	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under: −186 → −203 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Nickeil Alexander-Walker's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:13 PM ET.