Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Atlanta Hawks · G · #7

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1521 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 7.5 without him: 9 of 13; with him: 18 of 29 (42 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 30.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game
Game lines
ATL −2.5 · total 232.5 (5 sportsbooks)
ATL's games this season closed at 232.9 on average (8 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Under 7.5 Reb+Ast hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 3, hit, 34 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 3, hit, 29 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 7, hit, 30 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 9, missed, 32 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 5, hit, 29 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 4, hit, 32 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 4, hit, 31 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 3, hit, 29 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 8, missed, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 1.5–9.6 reb+ast.

Splits

Under 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 7.5 hit in 2 of 5 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 7.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Alexander-Walker didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; reb+ast the last time Alexander-Walker faced them: 8 (Feb 24)

Under 7.5 hit in 2 of 5 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 7.5

Average: 5.4; −2.1 vs line
Median: 4.5; −3 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −152
Books’ fair: 56%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −177

Research, not a pick. At −152 the price beats our fair −177, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	+1141 book	−1521 book	7/10

Compare 1 sportsbook at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
FanDuel4 min ago	+114Best	−152Best

Prices as of 7:52 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

−148 → −152 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Nickeil Alexander-Walker's full game log and splits