Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Atlanta Hawks · G · #7

ATL @ WSH · Tomorrow 7:00 PM

Over Under21.5

Under 21.5 Points, typical price −1182 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightDefense vs guards
WSH allow 44.4 points a game to guards: 28th most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 21.5 without him: 10 of 13; with him: 16 of 29 (42 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 30.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 at IND
3rd straight road game

60%6 of 10L10

Under 21.5 Points hit in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 16, hit, 34 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 11, hit, 29 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 31, missed, 30 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 14, hit, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 18, hit, 32 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 12, hit, 29 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 23, missed, 32 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 25, missed, 31 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 12, hit, 29 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 34, missed, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 9.6–28.3 points.

Splits

Under 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 21.5 hit in 5 of 5 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 21.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFDay-To-Day
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Alexander-Walker didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; points the last time Alexander-Walker faced them: 16 (Feb 24)

Under 21.5 hit in 5 of 5 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 21.5

Average: 19.6; −1.9 vs line
Median: 17; −4.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −114 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −132, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5901 book	—	4/10
−2591 book	—	5/10
−1701 book	—	6/10
−1092 books	−1182 books	6/10
+1721 book	—	7/10
+4501 book	—	8/10
+11001 book	—	10/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
DraftKings2 min ago	−111	−114Best
FanDuel1 min ago	−108Best	−122
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

−120 → −118 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Nickeil Alexander-Walker's full game log and splits