Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Atlanta Hawks · G · #7

ATL @ WSH · Live

Over Under3.5

Under 3.5 Assists, typical price −1223 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Under 3.5 Assists hit in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 on the road).

at NY, 2026-04-28: 3, hit, 34 min
vs NY, 2026-04-30: 2, hit, 29 min
at ORL, 2026-10-21: 3, hit, 30 min
at CHA, 2026-10-23: 5, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-24: 4, missed, 32 min
at HOU, 2026-10-26: 3, hit, 29 min
vs MIA, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 32 min
vs CLE, 2026-10-29: 1, hit, 31 min
at NO, 2026-10-31: 1, hit, 29 min
at IND, 2026-11-02: 4, missed, 31 min

Under hitMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 1–5 assists.

What's different yesterday

Under 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

All 7 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came with Jalen Johnson playing; Johnson is out yesterday. Without him: Under 3.5 in 4 of 8.

YesterdayTeammate out
Jalen Johnson: Out (ankle)
Under 3.5 without him: 4 of 8; with him: 46 of 84 (92 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jock Landale: Out (hip)
Under 3.5 without him: 8 of 13; with him: 14 of 29 (42 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
WSH allow 15.1 assists a game to guards: 18th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.4 min · 2026–27: 30.1 (8 games)

Splits

Under 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against WSH in his last 10; Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 5 against WSH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 3.5 · L10

Jalen JohnsonFOut
CJ McCollumG
Aaron WigginsG
Jock LandaleCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Hawks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs WSH

Alexander-Walker didn't play the Feb 26 meeting; assists the last time Alexander-Walker faced them: 5 (Feb 24)

Under 3.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against WSH on record

L10 · Under 3.5

Average: 2.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 3; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 55%; at −122
Books’ fair: 51%; margin removed
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −165

Research, not a pick. At −121 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −165, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7151 book	—	3/10
−2652 books	—	4/10
−1083 books	−1222 books	7/10
+1992 books	—	9/10
+4042 books	—	10/10
+8202 books	—	10/10
+15001 book	—	10/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKings16 hr ago	−109	−121Best
Pinnacle16 hr ago	−108	−122
Bally Bet16 hr ago	+108Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:11 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−137 → −122 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Nickeil Alexander-Walker's full game log and splits

This page last updated 7:13 PM ET.