Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks · G · #11

UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 Steals, typical price −2354 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Under 1.5 Steals hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2025-02-25: 3, missed, 40 min
vs CHA, 2025-02-27: 2, missed, 38 min
vs MIL, 2025-03-01: 1, hit, 38 min
vs SAC, 2025-03-03: 0, hit, 9 min
at HOU, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 24 min
at IND, 2026-10-23: 1, hit, 25 min
at MIA, 2026-10-26: 2, missed, 33 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 2, missed, 27 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 0, hit, 35 min
at SA, 2026-11-04: 1, hit, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different today

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayDefense vs guards
UTAH allow 6.0 steals a game to guards: 3rd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 1.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2024–25: 36 (50 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SA

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against UTAH in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 6 against UTAH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs UTAH

Irving didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; steals the last time Irving faced them: 4 (Nov 30, 2024)

Under 1.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against UTAH on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 70%; at −235
Books’ fair: 65%; margin removed
Our chance: 68%; estimate · fair −209

Research, not a pick. At −235 the price is worse than our fair −209, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2654 books	—	2/10
+1654 books	−2351 book	6/10
+4804 books	—	9/10
+12401 book	—	10/10
+24001 book	—	10/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
betPARX5 min ago	+165Best	−235Best
Bally Bet5 min ago	+165Best	—
BetRivers6 min ago	+165Best	—
DraftKings5 min ago	+146	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:30 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under isn't priced at 1.5 right now.

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Kyrie Irving's full game log and splits