Kyrie Irving
UTAH @ DAL · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Under 4.5
60%6 of 10L10
Under 4.5 Assists hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–7 assists.
What's different today
Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)
Under 4.5 without him: 3 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
UTAH allow 14.0 assists a game to guards: 22nd most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2024–25: 36 (50 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 at SA
Splits
Under 4.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderNo game against UTAH in his last 10; Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 6 against UTAH on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 4.5 · L10Cooper FlaggF
Naji MarshallF
P.J. WashingtonF
Dereck Lively IICOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs UTAH
Irving didn't play the Jan 17 meeting; assists the last time Irving faced them: 9 (Nov 30, 2024)
Under 4.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against UTAH on record
L10 · Under 4.5
- Average
- 4.2
- −0.3 vs line
- Median
- 4
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −115
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 52%
- estimate · fair −108
Research, not a pick. At −108 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −108, so it isn't worth it.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −25003 books | — | 1/10 | |
| −6254 books | — | 2/10 | |
| −2455 books | — | 4/10 | |
| −1186 books | −1155 books | 6/10 | |
| +1625 books | — | 8/10 | |
| +2904 books | — | 9/10 | |
| +5005 books | — | 9/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings12 min ago | −122 | −108Best |
| FanDuel3 min ago | −114Best | −114 |
| betPARX4 min ago | −118 | −115 |
| BetRivers4 min ago | −118 | −115 |
| Pinnacle12 min ago | −114Best | −116 |
| Bally Bet12 min ago | −115 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 10:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5Under: −114 → −115 since first seen