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Kyrie Irving

Dallas Mavericks · G · #11

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM
OverUnder2.5
Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price +1052 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

  • Teammate out

    Max Christie: Out (hip)

    Under 2.5 without him: no games; with him: 2 of 5 (5 games as teammates)

  • Teammate out

    Dereck Lively II: Out (foot)

    Under 2.5 without him: 2 of 5; with him: no games (5 games as teammates)

  • Defense vs guards

    SA allow 7.6 threes made a game to guards: 14th most of 30

    7 games

  • Minutes

    Last 5: 28.8 min · 2024–25: 36 (50 games)

Game log against Under 2.5

60%6 of 10L10

Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

  1. at GS, 2025-02-23: 1, hit, 32 min
  2. at LAL, 2025-02-25: 5, missed, 40 min
  3. vs CHA, 2025-02-27: 2, hit, 38 min
  4. vs MIL, 2025-03-01: 2, hit, 38 min
  5. vs SAC, 2025-03-03: 0, hit, 9 min
  6. at HOU, 2026-10-21: 1, hit, 24 min
  7. at IND, 2026-10-23: 5, missed, 25 min
  8. at MIA, 2026-10-26: 2, hit, 33 min
  9. vs OKC, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 27 min
  10. vs HOU, 2026-10-30: 5, missed, 35 min
Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against SA in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 against SA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

  • Cooper FlaggF

  • Naji MarshallF

  • P.J. WashingtonF

  • Max ChristieGOut

  • Dereck Lively IICOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Mavericks count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs SA

Irving didn't play the Oct 24 meeting; 3-pointers made the last time Irving faced them: 2 (Nov 16, 2024)

Under 2.5 hit in 2 of 4 games against SA on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average
2.6
+0.1 vs line
Median
2
−0.5 vs line
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10
Price implies
49%
at +105
Books’ fair
46%
margin removed
Our chance
49%
estimate · fair +105

Research, not a pick. At +111 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair +105, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10
Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
LineOverUnderL10
−28512 books—1/10
−4052 books—3/10
−1392 books+1052 books6/10
+1752 books—7/10
+3932 books—7/10
+7952 books—10/10
+14382 books—10/10
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5
Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · readOver 2.5Under 2.5
DraftKings2 min ago−146+111Best
FanDuel2 min ago−132Best+100
Sleeperpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted nowLine posted, no price

Prices as of 9:14 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

Under +100 → +105 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%
Kyrie Irving's full game log and splits