Julian Champagnie

San Antonio Spurs · F · #30

DAL @ SA · Wed, Nov 4 9:30 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1801 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-06-08: 1, cleared, 27 min
at NY, 2026-06-10: 4, cleared, 33 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 1, cleared, 31 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 2, cleared, 30 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 3, cleared, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 0, missed, 25 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 31 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 1, cleared, 27 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 0, missed, 22 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–2 steals.

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs forwards
DAL allow 2.4 steals a game to forwards: 24th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 26.6 min · 2025–26: 28.3 (106 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs UTAH
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
DAL 20th, SA 9th of 30

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
De'Aaron FoxG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Steals: 1 in 28 min, Oct 24 (away)

Over 0.5 hit in 7 of 9 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.3; +0.8 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 64%; at −180
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 62%; estimate · fair −166

Research, not a pick. At −180 the price is worse than our fair −166, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1801 book	pick'em only	7/10
	+2551 book	—	3/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet21 hr ago	−180Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 9:40 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −177 → −180 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Julian Champagnie's full game log and splits

This page last updated 9:43 PM ET.