Julian Champagnie

San Antonio Spurs · F · #30

DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PM

Over Under9.5

Over 9.5 Points, typical price −1251 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 9.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Defense vs forwards
DAL allow 43.0 points a game to forwards: 13th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 26.6 min · 2025–26: 28.3 (106 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs UTAH
Game lines
SA −11.5 · total 229.5 (4 sportsbooks)
SA's games this season closed at 229.4 on average (7 games)

50%5 of 10L10

Over 9.5 Points cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 6 at home).

at NY, 2026-06-08: 12, cleared, 27 min
at NY, 2026-06-10: 5, missed, 33 min
vs NY, 2026-06-13: 14, cleared, 31 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-20: 8, missed, 30 min
vs HOU, 2026-10-23: 6, missed, 25 min
at DAL, 2026-10-24: 12, cleared, 28 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-27: 26, cleared, 25 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-28: 6, missed, 31 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-31: 12, cleared, 27 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-02: 8, missed, 22 min

ClearedMissedThe 9.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 3.8–19.2 points.

Splits

Over 9.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 9.5 · L10

Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
De'Aaron FoxG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs DAL

Points: 12 in 28 min, Oct 24 (away)

Over 9.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against DAL on record

L10 · Over 9.5

Average: 10.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 10; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 56%; estimate · fair −127

Research, not a pick. At −125 the price beats our fair −127, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9701 book	—	10/10
−1251 book	−1061 book	5/10
+3201 book	—	1/10
+10601 book	—	1/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 9.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 9.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 9.5	Under 9.5
FanDuel2 min ago	−125Best	−106Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:39 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

9.5

Over −122 → −125 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Julian Champagnie's full game log and splits