Julian Champagnie
DAL @ SA · Tomorrow 9:30 PMWhat's different tonight
Over 13.5 · facts from past games, not a pickMinutes
Last 5: 26.6 min · 2025–26: 28.3 (106 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs UTAH
Game lines
SA −11.5 · total 226.5 (8 sportsbooks)
SA's games this season closed at 229.4 on average (7 games)
Pace · possessions a game · 7 games
DAL 20th, SA 9th of 30
Game log against Over 13.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 13.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (4 of 6 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 7.9–24.3 pts+reb.
Splits
Over 13.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 13.5 · L10Victor WembanyamaF
Stephon CastleG
De'Aaron FoxG
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Spurs count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs DAL
Pts+Reb: 17 in 28 min, Oct 24 (away)
Over 13.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against DAL on record
L10 · Over 13.5
- Average
- 14.8
- +1.3 vs line
- Median
- 13.5
- ±0 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 56%
- at −125
- Books’ fair
- 52%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −136
Research, not a pick. At −121 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −4041 book | — | 9/10 | |
| −1252 books | −1052 books | 5/10 | |
| +1061 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +3351 book | — | 2/10 | |
| +9701 book | — | 1/10 | |
| +22001 book | — | 0/10 |
Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 13.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 13.5 | Under 13.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings4 min ago | −121Best | −108 |
| FanDuel4 min ago | −130 | −102Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:54 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
13.514.5 → 13.5 since first seen


