Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under7.5

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1393 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 7.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at BOS, 2026-04-10: 9, cleared, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 15, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 4, missed, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 8, cleared, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 7, missed, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 21, cleared, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 12, cleared, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 11, cleared, 38 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-04: 8, cleared, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 7.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 3.3–15.7 reb+ast.

What's different today

Over 7.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 7.5 without him: 16 of 22; with him: 20 of 68 (90 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2026–27: 28 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
Game lines
NO +4.5 · total 231.5 (4 sportsbooks)
NO's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 7.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 7.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Reb+Ast: 15 in 41 min, Apr 12 (away)

Over 7.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 7.5

Average: 9.6; +2.1 vs line
Median: 8.5; +1 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −139
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −149

Research, not a pick. At −135 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −149, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9001 book	—	8/10
−2401 book	+1751 book	8/10
−1393 books	+1053 books	7/10
+1201 book	−1601 book	5/10
+1801 book	—	4/10
+4251 book	—	3/10
+14001 book	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 7.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 7.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 7.5	Under 7.5
Bovada4 min ago	−135Best	+105
DraftKings4 min ago	−139	+105
FanDuel3 min ago	−148	+112Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 5:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

7.5

Over: −146 → −139 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits