Jeremiah Fears

New Orleans Pelicans · G · #0

MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM

Over Under22.5

Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1182 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at BOS, 2026-04-10: 45, cleared, 44 min
at MIN, 2026-04-12: 51, cleared, 41 min
vs IND, 2026-10-21: 12, missed, 21 min
at UTAH, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 24 min
at DEN, 2026-10-24: 18, missed, 23 min
vs DEN, 2026-10-28: 18, missed, 24 min
vs SAC, 2026-10-29: 43, cleared, 29 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-31: 32, cleared, 31 min
at MEM, 2026-11-02: 23, cleared, 38 min
vs UTAH, 2026-11-04: 27, cleared, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 22.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 13.4–43.8 pts+reb+ast.

What's different today

Over 22.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 22.5 without him: 12 of 22; with him: 27 of 68 (90 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
MIN allow 88.8 points + rebounds + assists a game to guards: 13th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2026–27: 28 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH

Splits

Over 22.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 22.5 · L10

Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Yves MissiCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Pts+Reb+Ast: 51 in 41 min, Apr 12 (away)

Over 22.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 22.5

Average: 27.7; +5.2 vs line
Median: 25; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7701 book	—	8/10
−2101 book	—	6/10
−1182 books	−1212 books	6/10
+1351 book	—	5/10
+3501 book	—	4/10
+9201 book	—	3/10
+19601 book	—	3/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 22.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 22.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 22.5	Under 22.5
DraftKings8 min ago	−109Best	−121
FanDuel2 min ago	−118	−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 4:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

22.5

No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+4%

Jeremiah Fears's full game log and splits