Jeremiah Fears
MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 18.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 18.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 10.5–37 pts+reb.
What's different today
Over 18.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 18.5 without him: 11 of 22; with him: 28 of 68 (90 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2026–27: 28 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
Game lines
NO +4.5 · total 230.5 (6 sportsbooks)
NO's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)
Splits
Over 18.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 18.5 · L10Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Yves MissiCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIN
Pts+Reb: 46 in 41 min, Apr 12 (away)
Over 18.5 hit in 3 of 4 games against MIN on record
L10 · Over 18.5
- Average
- 23
- +4.5 vs line
- Median
- 20.5
- +2 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 53%
- at −112
- Books’ fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 56%
- estimate · fair −128
Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −128, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −2754 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1801 book | +1351 book | 5/10 | |
| −1351 book | +1051 book | 5/10 | |
| −1126 books | −1214 books | 5/10 | |
| +1104 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +2904 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +8501 book | — | 3/10 |
Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 18.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 18.5 | Under 18.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings14 min ago | −109Best | −121 |
| Bovada13 min ago | −110 | −120 |
| Bally Bet14 min ago | −112 | — |
| betPARX2 min ago | −112 | −121 |
| BetRivers3 min ago | −112 | — |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −122 | −108Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 9:26 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
18.5−128 → −112 since first seen