Jeremiah Fears
MIN @ NO · Today 8:00 PM
Game log against Over 3.5
50%5 of 10L10
Over 3.5 Assists cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2–8 assists.
What's different today
Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTeammate out
Yves Missi: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 14 of 22; with him: 28 of 68 (90 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
MIN allow 14.7 assists a game to guards: 18th most of 30
9 games
Minutes
Last 5: 31.2 min · 2026–27: 28 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 4 vs UTAH
Splits
Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Over 3.5 · L10Dejounte MurrayG
Zion WilliamsonF
Trey Murphy IIIFDay-To-Day
Yves MissiCOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Pelicans count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs MIN
Assists: 5 in 41 min, Apr 12 (away)
Over 3.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against MIN on record
L10 · Over 3.5
- Average
- 4.7
- +1.2 vs line
- Median
- 4
- +0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 50%
- 5 of 10
- Price implies
- 55%
- at −122
- Books’ fair
- 51%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 58%
- estimate · fair −136
Research, not a pick. At −121 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −136, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −9104 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −2864 books | — | 6/10 | |
| −1225 books | −1104 books | 5/10 | |
| +1704 books | — | 5/10 | |
| +3255 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +6004 books | — | 3/10 | |
| +12602 books | — | 1/10 |
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings9 min ago | −121Best | −109 |
| Bally Bet9 min ago | −122 | — |
| betPARX4 min ago | −122 | −110 |
| BetRivers5 min ago | −122 | −110 |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −125 | −106Best |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 7:21 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
3.5Over: No move since first seen