Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston Rockets · F · #10

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under23.5

Over 23.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, typical price −1083 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 23.5 Pts+Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-29: 32, cleared, 42 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 24, cleared, 42 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 36, cleared, 36 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 13, missed, 31 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 22, missed, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 33, cleared, 39 min
at MIL, 2026-10-28: 18, missed, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 27, cleared, 35 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 44, cleared, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 24, cleared, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 23.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 17.1–35.8 pts+reb+ast.

What's different yesterday

Over 23.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 23.5 without him: 36 of 59; with him: 17 of 32 (91 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIN allow 59.6 points + rebounds + assists a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 34.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS

Splits

Over 23.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 23.5 cleared in 6 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 23.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Pts+Reb+Ast: 24 in 40 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 23.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 23.5

Average: 27.3; +3.8 vs line
Median: 25.5; +2 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At +102 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−9901 book	—	9/10
−2532 books	—	8/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	7/10
−1083 books	−1222 books	7/10
+1162 books	—	5/10
+3002 books	—	4/10
+8301 book	—	2/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks at 23.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 23.5 Pts+Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 23.5	Under 23.5
Bally Bet22 hr ago	+102Best	—
DraftKings22 hr ago	−108	−122Best
Pinnacle22 hr ago	−108	−122Best

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

23.5

24.5 → 23.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jabari Smith Jr.'s full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.