Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston Rockets · F · #10

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under21.5

Over 21.5 Pts+Reb, typical price −1082 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 21.5 Pts+Reb cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-29: 29, cleared, 42 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 21, missed, 42 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 35, cleared, 36 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 12, missed, 31 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 19, missed, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 28, cleared, 39 min
at MIL, 2026-10-28: 16, missed, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 25, cleared, 35 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 39, cleared, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 24, cleared, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 21.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 15.4–33.4 pts+reb.

What's different yesterday

Over 21.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 21.5 without him: 35 of 59; with him: 19 of 32 (91 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 34.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS
Pace · possessions a game · 8 games
MIN 7th, HOU 29th of 30

Splits

Over 21.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 21.5 cleared in 6 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 21.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Pts+Reb: 22 in 40 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 21.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 21.5

Average: 24.8; +3.3 vs line
Median: 24.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 52%; at −108
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −138

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −138, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−5992 books	—	9/10
−1692 books	—	7/10
−1082 books	−1221 book	6/10
+1712 books	—	5/10
+4721 book	—	2/10
+11601 book	—	2/10
+23001 book	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 21.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 21.5 Pts+Reb, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 21.5	Under 21.5
Bally Bet19 hr ago	−104Best	—
DraftKings19 hr ago	−108	−122Best
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

21.5

22.5 → 21.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jabari Smith Jr.'s full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.