Jabari Smith Jr.

Houston Rockets · F · #10

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under16.5

Over 16.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1122 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 16.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

at LAL, 2026-04-29: 25, cleared, 42 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 12, missed, 42 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 31, cleared, 36 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 8, missed, 31 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 17, cleared, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 21, cleared, 39 min
at MIL, 2026-10-28: 16, missed, 30 min
at DAL, 2026-10-30: 24, cleared, 35 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 35, cleared, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 14, missed, 36 min

ClearedMissedThe 16.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 11.7–27.6 pts+ast.

What's different yesterday

Over 16.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 16.5 without him: 38 of 59; with him: 18 of 32 (91 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 34.6 min · 2026–27: 34.1 (8 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS
Pace · possessions a game · 8 games
MIN 7th, HOU 29th of 30

Splits

Over 16.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 16.5 cleared in 6 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 16.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Alperen SengunC
Amen ThompsonG
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Pts+Ast: 18 in 40 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 16.5 hit in 6 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 16.5

Average: 20.3; +3.8 vs line
Median: 19; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −112
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −107 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8601 book	—	9/10
−1842 books	—	7/10
−1122 books	−1181 book	6/10
+1782 books	—	5/10
+5461 book	—	3/10
+13801 book	—	2/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks at 16.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 16.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 16.5	Under 16.5
Bally Bet11 hr ago	−107Best	—
DraftKings11 hr ago	−112	−118Best

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

16.5

17.5 → 16.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Jabari Smith Jr.'s full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.