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Jabari Smith Jr.
BOS @ HOUCeltics @ Rockets · Today 8:30 PM ET
The line
Over 14.5 Points
Typical price −1095 sportsbooksbest −108
Game log
Over 14.5Over 14.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).
Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 9.6–25.3 points.
Home and away
L10 · Over 14.5Hometonight
80%
4 of 5
Away
40%
2 of 5
L10 · Over 14.5 Points
- Average
- 18
- +3.5 vs line
- Median
- 16
- +1.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 60%
- 6 of 10
- Price implies
- 52%
- −109, 5 sportsbooks
- Market’s fair
- 50%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −144
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.
Research, not a pick. At −108 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −144, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Compare 5 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 14.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 14.5 | Under 14.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet1 hr ago | −108Best | — |
| betPARX1 hr ago | −108Best | −122 |
| BetRivers1 hr ago | −109 | −124 |
| FanDuel1 hr ago | −125 | −102Best |
| DraftKings1 hr ago | −129 | — |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Underdogpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 8:37 PM ET.
Every posted line
Over hits, L10| Line | Over | Under | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −10005 books | — | 9/10 | |
| −10001 book | — | 9/10 | |
| −4555 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −4401 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −2405 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −2301 book | — | 8/10 | |
| −1394 books | — | 8/10 | |
| −1095 books | −1223 books | 6/10 | |
| +1116 books | −1302 books | 6/10 | |
| +1341 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +1855 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +2201 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +2855 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +3501 book | — | 4/10 | |
| +4204 books | — | 4/10 | |
| +5501 book | — | 2/10 | |
| +6004 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +7952 books | — | 2/10 | |
| +19592 books | — | 2/10 |
What moved our number
Pace−0.6%