Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors · F · #23

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −1623 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%16 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 16 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at WSH, 2026-03-16: 2, cleared, 29 min
at BOS, 2026-03-18: 1, cleared, 32 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 1, cleared, 22 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 0, missed, 26 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 3, cleared, 38 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 2, cleared, 34 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-27: 1, cleared, 32 min
at DEN, 2026-03-29: 1, cleared, 30 min
vs SA, 2026-04-01: 1, cleared, 21 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 1, cleared, 35 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 1, cleared, 34 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 1, cleared, 27 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-09: 1, cleared, 22 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 1, cleared, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 1, cleared, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 0, missed, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 0, missed, 32 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 3, cleared, 32 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 1, cleared, 17 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different today

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 25 of 40; with him: 25 of 39 (79 games as teammates)
TodayDefense vs forwards
MIA allow 4.6 steals a game to forwards: 2nd most of 30
8 games
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 0.5 without him: 9 of 17; with him: 12 of 13 (30 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 0.5 without him: 19 of 25; with him: 31 of 54 (79 games as teammates)

Splits

Over 0.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 0.5 cleared in 1 of 3 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Green didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; steals the last time Green faced them: 0 (Mar 25, 2025)

Over 0.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 0.5

Average: 1.1; +0.6 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 16 of 20
Price implies: 62%; at −162
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 64%; estimate · fair −179

Research, not a pick. At −162 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −179, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L20
	−1623 books	+1181 book	16/20
	+2703 books	—	4/20

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet16 min ago	−162Best	—
betPARX16 min ago	−162Best	+118Best
BetRivers15 min ago	−162Best	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:08 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

Over: −165 → −162 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Draymond Green's full game log and splits