Draymond Green

Golden State Warriors · F · #23

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Under 5.5 Rebounds, typical price −1435 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

65%13 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Under 5.5 Rebounds hit in 13 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at WSH, 2026-03-16: 8, missed, 29 min
at BOS, 2026-03-18: 5, hit, 32 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 5, hit, 22 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 6, missed, 26 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 7, missed, 38 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 5, hit, 34 min
vs WSH, 2026-03-27: 4, hit, 32 min
at DEN, 2026-03-29: 4, hit, 30 min
vs SA, 2026-04-01: 2, hit, 21 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 9, missed, 35 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 6, missed, 34 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 6, missed, 27 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-09: 5, hit, 22 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 4, hit, 24 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 4, hit, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 5, hit, 31 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 4, hit, 27 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 9, missed, 32 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 4, hit, 32 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 4, hit, 17 min

Under hitMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.7–8.4 rebounds.

What's different today

Under 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Under 5.5 without him: 26 of 40; with him: 18 of 39 (79 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Under 5.5 without him: 11 of 17; with him: 8 of 13 (30 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Under 5.5 without him: 16 of 25; with him: 28 of 54 (79 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
MIA allow 19.4 rebounds a game to forwards: 14th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Under 5.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Under 5.5 hit in 1 of 3 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 5.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Green didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; rebounds the last time Green faced them: 5 (Mar 25, 2025)

Under 5.5 hit in 1 of 3 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Under 5.5

Average: 5.3; −0.2 vs line
Median: 5; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 65%; 13 of 20
Price implies: 59%; at −143
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −139

Research, not a pick. At −137 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −139, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−3455 books	—	1/20
−1756 books	+1202 books	8/20
pick'em only	pick'em only	8/20
+1075 books	−1433 books	13/20
+1854 books	—	16/20
+3005 books	—	17/20
+4754 books	—	18/20

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings6 min ago	+104	−137Best
betPARX2 min ago	+107	−143
BetRivers1 min ago	+107	−143
Bally Bet6 min ago	+107	—
FanDuel1 min ago	+126Best	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:18 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

4.5 → 5.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Draymond Green's full game log and splits