Desmond Bane

Orlando Magic · G · #3

ORL @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under4.5

Under 4.5 Rebounds, typical price −1626 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%3 of 5L20 · Without Banchero

Under 4.5 Rebounds hit in 3 of 5 games without Paolo Banchero (his last 20 games).

at DAL, 2026-04-03: 7, missed, 33 min (not counted)
at NO, 2026-04-05: 6, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-06: 3, hit, 32 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-04-08: 4, hit, 30 min (not counted)
at CHI, 2026-04-10: 1, hit, 17 min (not counted)
at BOS, 2026-04-12: 2, hit, 18 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-19: 6, missed, 35 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-22: 4, hit, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-25: 7, missed, 38 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-04-27: 5, missed, 37 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-04-29: 5, missed, 34 min (not counted)
vs DET, 2026-05-01: 3, hit, 38 min (not counted)
at DET, 2026-05-03: 3, hit, 38 min (not counted)
vs ATL, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 33 min (not counted)
vs MIN, 2026-10-23: 2, hit, 27 min (not counted)
at NY, 2026-10-25: 6, missed, 35 min
at TOR, 2026-10-28: 5, missed, 34 min
at TOR, 2026-10-30: 2, hit, 39 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-01: 2, hit, 40 min
vs WSH, 2026-11-02: 3, hit, 36 min

Under hitMissedThe 4.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0.7–7.3 rebounds.

What's different today

Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Paolo Banchero: Out (ankle)
Under 4.5 without him: 8 of 15; with him: 48 of 81 (96 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Jalen Suggs: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 17 of 29; with him: 39 of 67 (96 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
PHX allow 16.8 rebounds a game to guards: 7th most of 30
6 games
Minutes
Last 5: 36.8 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (89 games)

Splits

Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against PHX in his last 20; Under 4.5 hit in 3 of 9 against PHX on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 4.5 · L20

Paolo BancheroFOut
Franz WagnerF
Jalen SuggsGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Magic count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs PHX

Rebounds: 6 in 37 min, Mar 31 (home)

Under 4.5 hit in 3 of 9 games against PHX on record

L20 · Without Banchero · Under 4.5

Average: 3.6; −0.9 vs line
Median: 3; −1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 3 of 5
Price implies: 62%; at −162
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −136

Research, not a pick. At −146 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −136, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L20 · Without Banchero

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−4004 books	—	2/5
−1675 books	—	3/5
pick'em only	pick'em only	3/5
+1206 books	−1625 books	3/5
+2305 books	—	4/5
+4104 books	—	5/5
+6505 books	—	5/5

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 4.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 4.5	Under 4.5
DraftKings4 min ago	+111	−146Best
Pinnacle4 min ago	+111	−147
FanDuel2 min ago	+122Best	−162
betPARX2 min ago	+120	−165
BetRivers4 min ago	+120	−165
Bally Bet4 min ago	+120	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:12 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

4.5

No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+0.6%

Desmond Bane's full game log and splits