De'Anthony Melton

Golden State Warriors · G · #8

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1127 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%12 of 20L20 · Without Butler

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 12 of 20 games without Jimmy Butler III (his last 20 games).

at BOS, 2026-03-18: 1, missed, 23 min
at DET, 2026-03-20: 4, cleared, 23 min
at ATL, 2026-03-21: 2, missed, 22 min
at DAL, 2026-03-23: 6, cleared, 23 min
vs BKN, 2026-03-25: 9, cleared, 28 min
at DEN, 2026-03-29: 1, missed, 25 min
vs CLE, 2026-04-02: 6, cleared, 26 min
vs HOU, 2026-04-05: 1, missed, 23 min
vs SAC, 2026-04-07: 4, cleared, 29 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-09: 3, missed, 15 min
at SAC, 2026-04-10: 4, cleared, 28 min
at LAC, 2026-04-12: 3, missed, 19 min
at LAL, 2026-10-21: 2, missed, 21 min
vs MEM, 2026-10-23: 1, missed, 20 min
at PHX, 2026-10-24: 5, cleared, 27 min
at DEN, 2026-10-26: 4, cleared, 19 min
at MIN, 2026-10-28: 6, cleared, 20 min
vs LAL, 2026-10-30: 5, cleared, 21 min
vs LAC, 2026-11-01: 6, cleared, 28 min
vs PHX, 2026-11-02: 7, cleared, 28 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1.5–8.2 rebounds.

What's different today

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayTeammate out
Jimmy Butler III: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 21 of 41; with him: 3 of 16 (57 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Kristaps Porzingis: Out (illness)
Over 3.5 without him: 12 of 19; with him: 6 of 12 (31 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Moses Moody: Out (knee)
Over 3.5 without him: 14 of 23; with him: 10 of 34 (57 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
MIA allow 18.1 rebounds a game to guards: 5th most of 30
8 games

Splits

Over 3.5 · L20 · counts, not in order

No game against MIA in his last 20; Over 3.5 cleared in 1 of 1 against MIA on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L20

Stephen CurryG
Yaxel LendeborgF
Jimmy Butler IIIFOut
Kristaps PorzingisCOut
Moses MoodyGOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Warriors count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIA

Melton didn't play the Jan 19 meeting; rebounds the last time Melton faced them: 7 (Dec 25, 2023)

Over 3.5 hit in 1 of 1 games against MIA on record

L20 · Without Butler · Over 3.5

Average: 4; +0.5 vs line
Median: 4; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 12 of 20
Price implies: 53%; at −112
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −150

Research, not a pick. At −105 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −150, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L20 · Without Butler

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L20
−6703 books	—	16/20
−2405 books	+1801 book	14/20
−1127 books	−1216 books	12/20
+1705 books	−2751 book	8/20
+3005 books	—	6/20
+5105 books	—	2/20
+12602 books	—	1/20

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
Bovada9 min ago	−105Best	−125
DraftKings4 min ago	−106	−124
Bally Bet4 min ago	−112	—
betPARX5 min ago	−112	−121
BetRivers4 min ago	−112	−121
Pinnacle4 min ago	−118	−112
FanDuel3 min ago	−125	−106Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:21 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

−104 → −112 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

De'Anthony Melton's full game log and splits