Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat · G · #2

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under19.5

Over 19.5 Pts+Ast, typical price −1186 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

90%9 of 10L10

Over 19.5 Pts+Ast cleared in 9 of his last 10 games (5 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 26, cleared, 37 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 13, missed, 26 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 22, cleared, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 23, cleared, 33 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 32, cleared, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 23, cleared, 33 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 20, cleared, 34 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 26, cleared, 35 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 22, cleared, 29 min
at LAC, 2026-11-04: 21, cleared, 43 min

ClearedMissedThe 19.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 12.2–29.9 pts+ast.

What's different today

Over 19.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest · back-to-back
Heat played the day before (at LAC): a back-to-back
3rd straight road game
Minutes
Last 5: 34.8 min · 2026–27: 34.6 (8 games)
Game lines
MIA +3.5 · total 235.5 (8 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)
Pace · possessions a game · 8 games
GS 22nd, MIA 3rd of 30

Splits

Over 19.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GS in his last 10; Over 19.5 cleared in 0 of 5 against GS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 19.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs GS

Pts+Ast: 10 in 25 min, Jan 19 (away)

Over 19.5 hit in 0 of 5 games against GS on record

L10 · Over 19.5

Average: 22.8; +3.3 vs line
Median: 22.5; +3 vs line
Hit rate: 90%; 9 of 10
Price implies: 54%; at −118
Books’ fair: 49%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −133

Research, not a pick. At −104 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −133, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4355 books	—	9/10
−1801 book	+1351 book	9/10
−1351 book	+1051 book	9/10
−1186 books	−1204 books	9/10
+2505 books	—	3/10
+7202 books	—	1/10
+17002 books	—	0/10

Compare 6 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 19.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 19.5 Pts+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 19.5	Under 19.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−104Best	−128
Bovada5 min ago	−110	−120
DraftKings5 min ago	−111	−119
Bally Bet5 min ago	−118	—
betPARX5 min ago	−118	−114Best
BetRivers4 min ago	−118	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 7:56 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

19.5

20.5 → 19.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Rest−3%

Davion Mitchell's full game log and splits