Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat · G · #2

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under2.5

Under 2.5 Rebounds, typical price −1397 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

80%8 of 10L10

Under 2.5 Rebounds hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 3, missed, 37 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 2, hit, 26 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 0, hit, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 2, hit, 33 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 1, hit, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 0, hit, 33 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 1, hit, 34 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 6, missed, 35 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 0, hit, 29 min
at LAC, 2026-11-04: 2, hit, 43 min

Under hitMissedThe 2.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 0–5.7 rebounds.

What's different today

Under 2.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest · back-to-back
Heat played the day before (at LAC): a back-to-back
3rd straight road game
Defense vs guards
GS allow 16.0 rebounds a game to guards: 12th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.8 min · 2026–27: 34.6 (8 games)
Game lines
MIA +3.5 · total 234.5 (8 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Under 2.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GS in his last 10; Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 5 against GS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 2.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs GS

Rebounds: 6 in 25 min, Jan 19 (away)

Under 2.5 hit in 3 of 5 games against GS on record

L10 · Under 2.5

Average: 1.7; −0.8 vs line
Median: 1.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −139
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −130

Research, not a pick. At −135 (the best of 6 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −130, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−25002 books	—	3/10
−2755 books	+2001 book	5/10
+1047 books	−1396 books	8/10
+2355 books	—	9/10
+4806 books	—	9/10
+11402 books	—	9/10
+16002 books	—	10/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 2.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 2.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Bovada4 min ago	+105	−135Best
DraftKings4 min ago	+103	−135Best
FanDuel4 min ago	+106	−136
betPARX4 min ago	+104	−139
BetRivers3 min ago	+104	−139
Pinnacle4 min ago	+109Best	−145
Bally Bet4 min ago	+104	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:45 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

2.5

3.5 → 2.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Rest−3%

Davion Mitchell's full game log and splits