Davion Mitchell

Miami Heat · G · #2

MIA @ GS · Today 10:00 PM

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Points, typical price −1257 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

70%7 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Points cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 on the road).

at TOR, 2026-04-09: 15, cleared, 37 min
vs ATL, 2026-04-12: 12, cleared, 26 min
vs MIN, 2026-10-21: 11, missed, 33 min
vs DET, 2026-10-23: 18, cleared, 33 min
at CHA, 2026-10-24: 22, cleared, 37 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-26: 21, cleared, 33 min
at ATL, 2026-10-28: 10, missed, 34 min
vs IND, 2026-10-30: 15, cleared, 35 min
at LAL, 2026-11-02: 15, cleared, 29 min
at LAC, 2026-11-04: 11, missed, 43 min

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 6.6–22 points.

What's different today

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayRest · back-to-back
Heat played the day before (at LAC): a back-to-back
3rd straight road game
Defense vs guards
GS allow 61.6 points a game to guards: 7th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 34.8 min · 2026–27: 34.6 (8 games)
Game lines
MIA +3.5 · total 235.5 (9 sportsbooks)
MIA's games this season closed at 236.9 on average (8 games)

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against GS in his last 10; Over 11.5 cleared in 1 of 5 against GS on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 11.5 · L10

Giannis AntetokounmpoF
Bam AdebayoC
Pelle LarssonG

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Heat count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs GS

Points: 7 in 25 min, Jan 19 (away)

Over 11.5 hit in 1 of 5 games against GS on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 15; +3.5 vs line
Median: 15; +3.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 56%; at −125
Books’ fair: 52%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −140

Research, not a pick. At −118 (the best of 7 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −140, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3201 book	—	10/10
−2406 books	+1751 book	10/10
−1702 books	+1301 book	9/10
−1257 books	−1104 books	7/10
+1005 books	−1343 books	6/10
+1285 books	−1801 book	6/10
+1753 books	−2401 book	6/10

Compare 7 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
Pinnacle3 min ago	−118Best	−112
FanDueljust now	−122	−110
Bovada7 min ago	−125	−105
DraftKings3 min ago	−125	−102Best
betPARX1 min ago	−132	—
BetRivers1 min ago	−132	—
Bally Bet2 min ago	−136	—
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 6:05 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

14.5 → 11.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+3%

Rest−3%

Davion Mitchell's full game log and splits