Damian Lillard
POR @ PHX · Today 9:00 PM
What's different today
Under 4.5 · facts from past games, not a pickTodayTeammate out
Shaedon Sharpe: Out (knee)
Under 4.5 without him: 4 of 6; with him: no games (6 games as teammates)
Teammate out
Ja Morant: Out (hamstring)
Under 4.5 without him: 1 of 2; with him: 3 of 4 (6 games as teammates). A small sample.
Defense vs guards
PHX allow 14.6 assists a game to guards: 21st most of 30
5 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.2 min · 2024–25: 35.5 (62 games)
Game log against Under 4.5
67%4 of 6L20 · Without Sharpe
Under 4.5 Assists hit in 4 of 6 games without Shaedon Sharpe (his last 20 games).
Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–6 assists.
Splits
Under 4.5 · L20 · counts, not in orderTap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.
With or without
Under 4.5 · L20Deni AvdijaF
Shaedon SharpeGOut
Jrue HolidayG
Ja MorantGOut
The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Trail Blazers count; “without” is a game he didn't play.
Last vs PHX
Assists: 6 in 24 min, Oct 21 (home)
Under 4.5 hit in 0 of 2 games against PHX on record
L20 · Without Sharpe · Under 4.5
- Average
- 4
- −0.5 vs line
- Median
- 4
- −0.5 vs line
- Hit rate
- 67%
- 4 of 6
- Price implies
- 50%
- at −102
- Books’ fair
- 47%
- margin removed
- Our chance
- 59%
- estimate · fair −142
Research, not a pick. At +100 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −142, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.
Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.
Lines posted now
Under hits, L20 · Without Sharpe| Line | Over | Under | L20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| −40001 book | — | 0/6 | |
| −8001 book | — | 2/6 | |
| −2862 books | — | 2/6 | |
| −1303 books | −1023 books | 4/6 | |
| +1522 books | — | 4/6 | |
| +2931 book | — | 6/6 | |
| +5282 books | — | 6/6 |
Compare 3 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 4.5
| Sportsbook · read | Over 4.5 | Under 4.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings3 min ago | −132 | +100Best |
| FanDuel2 min ago | −130 | −102 |
| Pinnacle3 min ago | −128Best | −104 |
| PrizePickspick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
| Sleeperpick'em, posted now | Line posted, no price | |
Prices as of 1:15 AM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.
The consensus line
4.5Under −104 → −102 since first seen