Christian Braun

Denver Nuggets · G · #0

TOR @ DEN · Tomorrow 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1601 sportsbook · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Under 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Under 1.5 without him: 17 of 23; with him: 25 of 33 (56 games as teammates)
Defense vs guards
TOR allow 8.9 threes made a game to guards: 6th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 36.8 min · 2025–26: 31.7 (50 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

80%8 of 10L10

Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made hit in 8 of his last 10 games (4 of 4 at home).

at MIN, 2026-04-23: 0, hit, 24 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 1, hit, 34 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 1, hit, 31 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 1, hit, 28 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 1, hit, 33 min
vs NO, 2026-10-24: 0, hit, 40 min
vs GS, 2026-10-26: 1, hit, 34 min
at NO, 2026-10-28: 3, missed, 36 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 7, missed, 37 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 1, hit, 37 min

Under hitMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–3 3-pointers made.

Splits

Under 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 4 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Under 1.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

3-Pointers Made: 1 in 33 min, Mar 20 (home)

Under 1.5 hit in 4 of 4 games against TOR on record

L10 · Under 1.5

Average: 1.6; +0.1 vs line
Median: 1; −0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 80%; 8 of 10
Price implies: 62%; at −160
Books’ fair: 58%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −147

Research, not a pick. At −160 the price is worse than our fair −147, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Under hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−4001 book	—	2/10
+1201 book	−1601 book	8/10
+4001 book	—	8/10
+11001 book	—	9/10

Compare 1 sportsbook and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
FanDuel3 min ago	+120Best	−160Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 10:09 PM ET. The page leads with the Under's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Under −154 → −160 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Christian Braun's full game log and splits