Cameron JohnsonDay-To-Day

Denver Nuggets · F · #23

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1402 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 3rd back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 5.5 since: 2 of 2
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 5.5 without him: 7 of 16; with him: 26 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.8 min · 2025–26: 30.6 (60 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs POR

40%4 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs MEM, 2026-04-08: 5, missed, 30 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 1, missed, 33 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 3, missed, 28 min
at MIN, 2026-04-23: 3, missed, 24 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 4, missed, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 11, cleared, 36 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 11, cleared, 39 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 3, missed, 11 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 12, cleared, 34 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 6, cleared, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 2.8–11 reb+ast.

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 5.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Reb+Ast: 7 in 31 min, Mar 20 (home)

Over 5.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 5.5

Average: 5.9; +0.4 vs line
Median: 4.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 58%; at −140
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −137 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −132, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Line	Over	Under	L10
	−1402 books	+1042 books	4/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
DraftKings6 min ago	−137Best	+104
FanDuel6 min ago	−140	+106Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 2:38 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Over −130 → −140 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Cameron Johnson's full game log and splits