Cameron JohnsonDay-To-Day

Denver Nuggets · F · #23

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under11.5

Over 11.5 Points, typical price −1143 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 11.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 3rd back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 11.5 since: 1 of 2
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 11.5 without him: 6 of 16; with him: 28 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 38.1 points a game to forwards: 25th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.8 min · 2025–26: 30.6 (60 games)

60%6 of 10L10

Over 11.5 Points cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs MEM, 2026-04-08: 18, cleared, 30 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 12, cleared, 33 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 13, cleared, 28 min
at MIN, 2026-04-23: 6, missed, 24 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 9, missed, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 18, cleared, 36 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 27, cleared, 39 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 5, missed, 11 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 12, cleared, 34 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 7, missed, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 11.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 5.8–21.2 points.

Splits

Over 11.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 11.5 cleared in 4 of 6 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 11.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Points: 6 in 31 min, Mar 20 (home)

Over 11.5 hit in 4 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 11.5

Average: 12.7; +1.2 vs line
Median: 12; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 53%; at −114
Books’ fair: 50%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −132

Research, not a pick. At −109 (the best of 3 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −132, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−7701 book	—	9/10
−3611 book	—	7/10
−2252 books	—	6/10
−1143 books	−1143 books	6/10
+1982 books	—	3/10
+4101 book	—	3/10
+6502 books	—	1/10

Compare 3 sportsbooks and 3 pick'em apps at 11.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 11.5 Points, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 11.5	Under 11.5
DraftKings5 min ago	−109Best	−116
Pinnacle5 min ago	−114	−114
FanDuel2 min ago	−118	−112Best
PrizePickspick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:37 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

11.5

No move since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Cameron Johnson's full game log and splits