Cameron JohnsonDay-To-Day

Denver Nuggets · F · #23

TOR @ DEN · Tomorrow 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made, typical price −1682 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different tonight

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TonightBack from an absence
Tonight is his 3rd game back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 1.5 since: 1 of 2
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 1.5 without him: 7 of 16; with him: 27 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 3.4 threes made a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.8 min · 2025–26: 30.6 (60 games)

50%5 of 10L10

Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made cleared in 5 of his last 10 games (3 of 5 at home).

vs MEM, 2026-04-08: 2, cleared, 30 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 2, cleared, 33 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 1, missed, 28 min
at MIN, 2026-04-23: 0, missed, 24 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 1, missed, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 2, cleared, 36 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 5, cleared, 39 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 11 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 2, cleared, 34 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 1, missed, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for tonight: a typical night lands 0–4 3-pointers made.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 2 of 6 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out tonight. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

3-Pointers Made: 0 in 31 min, Mar 20 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 2 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 1.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 1.5; ±0 vs line
Hit rate: 50%; 5 of 10
Price implies: 63%; at −168
Books’ fair: 59%; margin removed
Our chance: 60%; estimate · fair −148

Research, not a pick. At −164 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −148, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge: props on our numbers have lost money since Oct 7.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8501 book	—	9/10
−1682 books	+1262 books	5/10
+1832 books	—	1/10
+4622 books	—	1/10
+11262 books	—	1/10
+22832 books	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings3 min ago	−164Best	+124
FanDuel3 min ago	−172	+128Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 11:28 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −174 → −168 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Cameron Johnson's full game log and splits