Cameron JohnsonDay-To-Day

Denver Nuggets · F · #23

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under3.5

Over 3.5 Rebounds, typical price −1582 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 3.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 3rd back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 3.5 since: 2 of 2
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 3.5 without him: 10 of 16; with him: 23 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Defense vs forwards
TOR allow 15.4 rebounds a game to forwards: 26th most of 30
7 games
Minutes
Last 5: 30.8 min · 2025–26: 30.6 (60 games)

40%4 of 10L10

Over 3.5 Rebounds cleared in 4 of his last 10 games (2 of 5 at home).

vs MEM, 2026-04-08: 3, missed, 30 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 0, missed, 33 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 1, missed, 28 min
at MIN, 2026-04-23: 2, missed, 24 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 2, missed, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 6, cleared, 36 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 8, cleared, 39 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 2, missed, 11 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 9, cleared, 34 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 4, cleared, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 3.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–7.6 rebounds.

Splits

Over 3.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 3.5 cleared in 3 of 6 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 3.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Rebounds: 5 in 31 min, Mar 20 (home)

Over 3.5 hit in 3 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 3.5

Average: 3.7; +0.2 vs line
Median: 2.5; −1 vs line
Hit rate: 40%; 4 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −158
Books’ fair: 55%; margin removed
Our chance: 58%; estimate · fair −137

Research, not a pick. At −130 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −137, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3831 book	—	5/10
−1582 books	−1022 books	4/10
+1301 book	—	3/10
+2482 books	—	3/10
+4691 book	—	2/10
+8502 books	—	2/10
+15001 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 3.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 3.5 Rebounds, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
FanDuel4 min ago	−130Best	−102
DraftKings3 min ago	−158	+120Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:49 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

3.5

Over −162 → −158 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Cameron Johnson's full game log and splits