Cameron JohnsonDay-To-Day

Denver Nuggets · F · #23

TOR @ DEN · Today 9:00 PM

Over Under1.5

Over 1.5 Assists, typical price −2052 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 1.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

5 of his 7 hits in the last 10 came before Johnson missed 3 games. Since he came back: Over 1.5 in 2 of 2.

TodayBack from an absence
Today's game is his 3rd back after missing 3 games in a row (Oct 24 – Oct 28)
Over 1.5 since: 2 of 2
TodayDefense vs forwards
TOR allow 5.9 assists a game to forwards: 29th most of 30
7 games
Teammate out
Spencer Jones: Out (hamstring)
Over 1.5 without him: 9 of 16; with him: 33 of 47 (63 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 30.8 min · 2025–26: 30.6 (60 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 1.5 Assists cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 5 at home).

vs MEM, 2026-04-08: 2, cleared, 30 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-18: 1, missed, 33 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-20: 2, cleared, 28 min
at MIN, 2026-04-23: 1, missed, 24 min
at MIN, 2026-04-25: 2, cleared, 27 min
vs MIN, 2026-04-27: 5, cleared, 36 min
at MIN, 2026-04-30: 3, cleared, 39 min
at OKC, 2026-10-22: 1, missed, 11 min
at PHX, 2026-10-30: 3, cleared, 34 min
vs POR, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 34 min

ClearedMissedThe 1.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 1–5 assists.

Splits

Over 1.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against TOR in his last 10; Over 1.5 cleared in 5 of 6 against TOR on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 1.5 · L10

Nikola JokicC
Jamal MurrayG
Aaron GordonF
Spencer JonesFOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Nuggets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs TOR

Assists: 2 in 31 min, Mar 20 (home)

Over 1.5 hit in 5 of 6 games against TOR on record

L10 · Over 1.5

Average: 2.2; +0.7 vs line
Median: 2; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 67%; at −205
Books’ fair: 62%; margin removed
Our chance: 66%; estimate · fair −196

Research, not a pick. At −181 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −196, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−2052 books	+1362 books	7/10
+1591 book	—	3/10
+4002 books	—	1/10
+9601 book	—	1/10
+18002 books	—	0/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 1.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 1.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
DraftKings4 min ago	−181Best	+136
FanDuel4 min ago	−205	+152Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:55 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

1.5

Over −200 → −205 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Cameron Johnson's full game log and splits