Alperen Sengun

Houston Rockets · C · #28

MIN @ HOU · Live

Over Under0.5

Over 0.5 Steals, typical price −3412 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

60%6 of 10L10

Over 0.5 Steals cleared in 6 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 at home).

vs LAL, 2026-04-24: 3, cleared, 47 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-26: 1, cleared, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-04-29: 2, cleared, 43 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 0, missed, 38 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 0, missed, 30 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 0, missed, 36 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 1, cleared, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 6, cleared, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 0, missed, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 2, cleared, 38 min

ClearedMissedThe 0.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for yesterday's game: a typical game lands 0–3 steals.

What's different yesterday

Over 0.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 0.5 without him: 34 of 57; with him: 20 of 27 (84 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
MIN allow 0.6 steals a game to centers: 18th most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 35.4 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS

Splits

Over 0.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 0.5 cleared in 5 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 0.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Amen ThompsonG
Jabari Smith Jr.F
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out yesterday. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Steals: 0 in 29 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 0.5 hit in 5 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 0.5

Average: 1.5; +1 vs line
Median: 1; +0.5 vs line
Hit rate: 60%; 6 of 10
Price implies: 77%; at −341
Books’ fair: —; needs both sides
Our chance: 67%; estimate · fair −206

Research, not a pick. At −245 (the best of 2 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −206, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−3412 books	pick'em only	6/10
+1262 books	—	4/10
+3962 books	—	2/10
+10601 book	—	1/10
+22001 book	—	1/10

Compare 2 sportsbooks and 1 pick'em app at 0.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 0.5 Steals, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
Bally Bet6 hr ago	−245Best	—
DraftKings6 hr ago	−341	—
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 8:41 PM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

0.5

1.5 → 0.5 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Alperen Sengun's full game log and splits

This page last updated 8:43 PM ET.