Alperen Sengun

Houston Rockets · C · #28

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under5.5

Over 5.5 Assists, typical price −1575 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 5.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 5.5 without him: 32 of 57; with him: 18 of 28 (85 games as teammates)
Defense vs centers
MIN allow 2.0 assists a game to centers: 21st most of 30
8 games
Minutes
Last 5: 35.4 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS

70%7 of 10L10

Over 5.5 Assists cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (4 of 7 at home).

vs LAL, 2026-04-24: 6, cleared, 47 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-26: 2, missed, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-04-29: 8, cleared, 43 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 1, missed, 38 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 5, missed, 30 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 7, cleared, 36 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 7, cleared, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 9, cleared, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 9, cleared, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 10, cleared, 38 min

ClearedMissedThe 5.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 3–10 assists.

Splits

Over 5.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 5.5 cleared in 3 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 5.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Amen ThompsonG
Jabari Smith Jr.F
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Assists: 8 in 29 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 5.5 hit in 3 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 5.5

Average: 6.4; +0.9 vs line
Median: 7; +1.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 61%; at −157
Books’ fair: 57%; margin removed
Our chance: 61%; estimate · fair −155

Research, not a pick. At −152 (the best of 5 sportsbooks) the price beats our fair −155, but props stay research until bets like this beat the close.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−8354 books	—	8/10
−3353 books	—	8/10
−1575 books	+1144 books	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
+1163 books	—	6/10
+2054 books	—	4/10
+3503 books	—	3/10

Compare 5 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 5.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 5.5 Assists, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 5.5	Under 5.5
FanDuel5 min ago	−152Best	+114
Pinnacle5 min ago	−152Best	+114
Bally Bet5 min ago	−157	—
betPARX5 min ago	−157	+118Best
BetRivers5 min ago	−162	+118Best
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 12:59 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

5.5

Over −122 → −157 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Alperen Sengun's full game log and splits