Alperen Sengun

Houston Rockets · C · #28

MIN @ HOU · Today 8:30 PM

Over Under14.5

Over 14.5 Reb+Ast, typical price −1504 sportsbooks · consensus lineUpdated

What's different today

Over 14.5 · facts from past games, not a pick

Teammate out
Steven Adams: Out (calf)
Over 14.5 without him: 32 of 57; with him: 18 of 28 (85 games as teammates)
Minutes
Last 5: 35.4 min · 2025–26: 33.8 (78 games)
Rest
1 day off since Nov 2 vs BOS
Game lines
HOU −8.5 · total 220.5 (8 sportsbooks)
HOU's games this season closed at 224.5 on average (8 games)

70%7 of 10L10

Over 14.5 Reb+Ast cleared in 7 of his last 10 games (5 of 7 at home).

vs LAL, 2026-04-24: 22, cleared, 47 min
vs LAL, 2026-04-26: 8, missed, 33 min
at LAL, 2026-04-29: 17, cleared, 43 min
vs LAL, 2026-05-01: 12, missed, 38 min
vs DAL, 2026-10-21: 15, cleared, 30 min
at SA, 2026-10-23: 14, missed, 36 min
at ATL, 2026-10-24: 18, cleared, 33 min
vs ATL, 2026-10-26: 18, cleared, 37 min
vs OKC, 2026-10-31: 18, cleared, 33 min
vs BOS, 2026-11-02: 17, cleared, 38 min

ClearedMissedThe 14.5 linehis 2026–27 minutes

Our model's range for today's game: a typical game lands 9.3–21.7 reb+ast.

Splits

Over 14.5 · L10 · counts, not in order

No game against MIN in his last 10; Over 14.5 cleared in 4 of 9 against MIN on record. Tap a split to count only its games. Research from past games, not a pick.

With or without

Over 14.5 · L10

Kevin DurantF
Amen ThompsonG
Jabari Smith Jr.F
Steven AdamsCOut

The three teammates who use the most possessions a game (shots, free throws, turnovers) among those playing 15+ minutes, over their last 20 games, then anyone else in the rotation ruled out today. Only games they were teammates on the Rockets count; “without” is a game he didn't play.

Last vs MIN

Reb+Ast: 14 in 29 min, Apr 10 (home)

Over 14.5 hit in 4 of 9 games against MIN on record

L10 · Over 14.5

Average: 15.9; +1.4 vs line
Median: 17; +2.5 vs line
Hit rate: 70%; 7 of 10
Price implies: 60%; at −150
Books’ fair: 54%; margin removed
Our chance: 57%; estimate · fair −135

Research, not a pick. At −138 (the best of 4 sportsbooks) the price is worse than our fair −135, so it isn't worth it.

Our chance is our model's estimate, not a proven edge.

Lines posted now

Over hits, L10

Every line posted now: the typical price on each side and how many sportsbooks price it.
Over	Under	L10
−1504 books	+1041 book	7/10
pick'em only	pick'em only	6/10
−1083 books	−1241 book	6/10
+3103 books	—	1/10

Compare 4 sportsbooks and 2 pick'em apps at 14.5

Each sportsbook's price for the Over and the Under 14.5 Reb+Ast, with when we read it; the best current price is marked.
Sportsbook · read	Over 14.5	Under 14.5
FanDuel1 min ago	−138Best	+104Best
Bally Bet1 min ago	−150	—
betPARX3 min ago	−150	—
BetRivers3 min ago	−150	—
Sleeperpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price
Underdogpick'em, posted now	Line posted, no price

Prices as of 1:04 AM ET. The page leads with the Over's typical price; these are each sportsbook's own.

The consensus line

14.5

−121 → −150 since first seen

What moved our number

Pace+1%

Alperen Sengun's full game log and splits